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Supporting Entrepreneurs Across Borders At the Heart of Business Growth: MBIEC In today’s fast-paced economy, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) need more than just a good idea—they need support systems that work across departments, borders, and time zones. That’s where MBIEC – Maverick Business Intelligence & Energy Company  steps in. Headquartered in New Jersey , MBIEC has grown into a strategic HUB for small business owners across the world, providing essential services that power every corner of a company—from sales and procurement to bookkeeping and accounting. What We Do: Your Partner in Progress MBIEC isn’t just a service provider—we’re your partner in building a better business. Our clients lean on us for: Budget Planning & Financial Clarity. Helping you secure and manage your business budgets with precision. Bookkeeping & Accounting Services. From daily transactions to year-end reporting, our remote and virtual teams keep your books clean and your strategy sharp. Sales Growth & Training. Need help closing more deals or training a remote sales team? We bring the structure and the strategy. Marketing Services. Ramp up your website and SEO and begin to drive organic inbound leads. We provide a full suite of marketing services to support your brand. Procurement Support. With a global supplier network, we assist in sourcing, negotiating, and managing vendors, saving you time and money. Operational Efficiency. Whether it’s workflow automation or international vendor coordination, we streamline your back office so you can focus on what you do best. Global Reach, Local Execution While all operations are managed from New Jersey and New York , our impact stretches across the globe with partnerships in: NY/NJ Operations ✔️ USA ✔️ Canada ✔️ Dominican Republic ✔️ United Kingdom ✔️ Denmark ✔️ Italy ✔️ Greece ✔️ Turkey ✔️ Dubai ✔️ India ✔️ South Korea Our global team brings a rich mix of experience, culture, and capability—yet every client gets a tailored, local experience through our central operations. Why Small Businesses Choose MBIEC We understand the hustle : Many of our clients are startups or scaling companies that need flexible, cost-effective support. We’re entrepreneurs too : We built MBIEC from the ground up, and we know what it takes to get from idea to impact. We offer a one-stop shop : No need to juggle five vendors—our integrated services save time, money, and headaches. We’re human : Real people, real conversations, real solutions. Let’s Build Together Whether you’re just starting or ready to scale, MBIEC is ready to support your journey. Join the growing network of business owners who have made us their trusted HUB. 📩 Ready to learn how you also can partner with MBIEC? Book a free consultation here Maverick Business Intelligence & Energy Company

Mid‑2025 Newbuilding Outlook Segment‑by‑Segment Guide to Vessels Entering the Market The world’s shipyards are booked solid through the decade, and 2025‑26 delivery schedules are swelling across most cargo and passenger classes. Decarbonisation deadlines, high 2021‑23 freight earnings and cheap capital have all combined to pull forward ordering decisions. Below is the MBIEC view of the fresh tonnage now queuing for sea‑trials and what it means for supply‑demand balances. 1. Container Ships Orderbook at a record 9 – 9.5 M TEU, ≈30 % of the fleet.  Close to 800 box‑ships are on order, and contracting is not over yet. ( mykn.kuehne-nagel.com ) Delivery wave peaking now through 2026.  Fleet capacity is projected to be 46 % larger than 2019 levels by 2026 while demand is forecast to be up only 22 %. ( ft.com ) Size mix matters.  Neopanamax (13‑15 k TEU) units account for 60 % of main‑line newbuilds delivering through 2025, with Megamaxes (23‑24 k TEU) at 23 %. ( markets.businessinsider.com ) Fuel decisions:  70 % of 2024‑25 orders are LNG‑dual‑fuel; methanol‑ready now trails at ~14 % of contracts. ( rivieramm.com ) MBIEC take:  Supply pressure is building on Asia‑Europe and trans‑Pacific lanes. Carriers will lean heavily on slow‑steaming, extra‑loader pull‑outs and early recycling to keep utilisation healthy. 2. Tankers (Crude & Products) Orderbook has nearly tripled since 2022 to 12.9 % of the fleet.  ( lloydslist.com ) Segment winners:  Aframax/LR2 (18.3 % orderbook‑to‑fleet) and Suezmax (16.6 %) see the biggest inflows; VLCCs remain modest at 7.8 %. ( lloydslist.com ) Delivery cadence:  MBIEC modelling (AXS data) shows Aframax/LR supply up 9.4 % in 2025 and 11.3 % in 2026, outstripping demand growth; VLCC growth stays below 2 % p.a. ( public.axsmarine.com ) MBIEC take:  Product‑tanker strength endures into 2025, but crude segments may see spot‑rate softness once the Suezmax wave lands unless scrapping accelerates. 3. Dry Bulk Orderbook remains historically low at <10 % of on‑water dwt.  ( globenewswire.com ) 2025 delivery schedules:  164 Supra/Ultramax bulkers are slated for hand‑over, lifting supply roughly 5 %. Fleet growth then eases in 2026‑27. ( globenewswire.com ) Newbuild reluctance:  High yard prices, fuel‑technology uncertainty and berth scarcity keep owners cautious. MBIEC take:  Supply discipline gives Capesize and Post‑Panamax owners breathing room; rate volatility will track Chinese steel stimulus more than fleet additions. 4. Gas Carriers LNG 650 ships on the water and counting.  Charter rates plunged in late‑2024 amid vessel oversupply and liquefaction project delays. ( ft.com ) Order momentum unabated:  33 of the 34 alternative‑fuel vessels ordered in Feb‑2025 were LNG‑capable. ( shipandbunker.com ) Selective expansion:  Owners like Celsius now hold 21 LNGCs on order, stretching into 2027. ( offshore-energy.biz ) LPG & Ammonia VLGC and VLAC projects are pivoting to ammonia carriage and dual‑fuel engines, with first deliveries clustered in 2026‑27. ( rivieramm.com ) MBIEC take:  Near‑term oversupply keeps spot TCEs under pressure, but EU‑plus‑Asia demand and North‑America export growth post‑2027 justify the long tail of the orderbook. 5. Pure Car & Truck Carriers (PCTC) OEM‑driven capacity race:  BYD alone now fields five LNG‑dual‑fuel PCTCs, two at 9,200 CEU. ( cnevpost.com , carnewschina.com ) Traditional operators expanding:  Sallaum Lines added six more LNG‑fuelled 7,400‑7,500 CEU vessels in late‑2024. ( marinelink.com ) MBIEC take:  EV export growth is turning vehicle logistics into the hottest newbuilding niche; rate peaks of 2023‑24 will moderate but remain structurally higher than pre‑Covid. 6. Cruise & Passenger 2025‑26 crop: Disney Destiny  & Disney Adventure  enter service Nov & Dec 2025 (LNG). ( en.wikipedia.org ) Star Princess  delays push hand‑over to late‑2025; first Sphere‑class sister already sailing. ( en.wikipedia.org ) MSC’s World Asia  (216 k GT) debuts 2026, with at least two more sisters firmed through 2027. ( en.wikipedia.org ) MBIEC take:  Big‑ship deliveries are paced to match berth demand recovery; LNG dual‑fuel and shore‑power readiness are now baseline specs. 7. Offshore Wind Service (CSOV/SOV) Edda Wind  has four methanol‑ready CSOVs delivering 2025‑26, taking its fleet to 14 units. ( eddawind.com ) Windward Offshore/Fincantieri  hybrid CSOV pair arrives from Q2‑2025, optioned for two more. ( fincantieri.com ) MBIEC take:  With EU wind‑farm installations doubling by 2027, the CSOV orderbook is still playing catch‑up; charter cover remains strong and long‑dated. Cross‑Segment Conclusions Capacity Growth Is Uneven:  Containers and Aframax/LR2 tankers face the stiffest fleet‑expansion headwinds; dry bulk is the clear laggard in ordering. Alt‑Fuel Transition Is Accelerating:  Over half of 2024‑25 contracts are LNG‑dual‑fuel, methanol‑ready or ammonia‑ready, locking in future bunkering demand for green molecules. Yard Capacity Is the New Bottleneck:  With Tier‑1 Asian yards sold out into 2028, late adopters will pay more and wait longer—reinforcing current orderbook divides. Earnings Outlook:  Expect bifurcation—segments with subdued orderbooks (dry bulk capesize, VLCC) retain upside leverage; high‑orderbook classes require disciplined speed management and scrapping to avoid rate erosion. Maverick Business Intelligence & Energy Company MBIEC will continue to monitor slippage, cancellations and emerging retrofit programmes that could meaningfully change this outlook ahead of the 2026 delivery peak.

MBIEC-focused outlook  on the U.S. Gulf maritime bunker market — examining bunkering, oil tankers, dry bulk, and offshore support vessels — especially in light of tariff-driven trade and shifting spot rates. ⛽ 1. U.S. Gulf Bunkering Market (Houston, Galveston, Corpus Christi) HSFO tightness persists:  HSFO availability in Houston remains constrained, with lead times ≥7 days through March–May  reuters.com + 12manifoldtimes.com + 12midship.com + 12dan-bunkering.com + 3manifoldtimes.com + 3manifoldtimes.com +3 . VLSFO/LSMGO stable:  Prompt bunker availability via pipelines for cleaner grades, accommodating both spot and contract voyages  manifoldtimes.com + 2manifoldtimes.com + 2manifoldtimes.com +2 . Demand muted but poised to rebound:  Early‑2025 demand was sluggish, yet regional offshore activity and port upgrades (e.g., Corpus Christi channel deepening) support moderate recovery  linkedin.com + 15manifoldtimes.com + 15thesignalgroup.com +15 . LNG bunkering emerging:  The Galveston LNG Bunker Port (GLBP) received permits in May, aiming for 360k gal/day initial capacity by 2027, doubling supply in Phase 2  businesswire.com + 4reuters.com + 4manifoldtimes.com +4 . Outlook (next 6 months): Bunkering to rebound +3–6% YoY in H2, driven by offshore support fleets and green fuel infrastructure. HSFO bottlenecks may persist; growth in LNG bunkering delayed until late ‘27. VLSFO margins likely compress due to increasing competition. 🛢️ 2. Oil Tankers (Aframax, Suezmax, VLCC) Tariff-sensitive flows:  Q1 Q2 saw slight tanker volume dips (–5–10%) on Gulf–US routes when tariffs threatened export pipelines  engine.online + 9dan-bunkering.com + 9manifoldtimes.com + 9manifoldtimes.commanifoldtimes.com + 3manifoldtimes.com + 3dan-bunkering.com + 3thesignalgroup.com . Geopolitics supporting tanker rates:  U.S. sanctions on Russian shipping fuel demand for alternative tanker capacity, bolstering VLCC freight in early 2025 . Chartering cautious:  Traders are shying away from long-term charters due to uncertainty in trade/policy; however, spot freight remains robust . Dual-fuel potential:  The Texas City LNG bunkering project may support LNG-powered tanker callings post-2027. Outlook: Spot rates strong through Q4: Aframax and Suezmax benefit from constrained U.S. Gulf crude exports and volumes re-routing. Long-term charter reluctance continues into Q3–Q4. GLBP’s operational ramp will help future gas-fueled tanker conversions. 📦 3. Dry Bulk (Grain, Coal, Aggregates) Spot charter strength in Gulf:  U.S. Gulf supramax/handysize fixtures remain firm, with Supramax ≈US$12.5 k/day and Handysize ≈US$10.3 k  manifoldtimes.com + 1thesignalgroup.com + 1reuters.com . Soft capsizes:  Capesize trades plateau globally amid weak Chinese demand but limited new supply provides support  engine.online + 4seatrade-maritime.com + 4argusmedia.com +4 . Tariff pressure on agricultural exports:  U.S.–China tensions weigh on grain/barge export volumes, impacting lighter vessel traffic inland  seatrade-maritime.com + 2linkedin.com + 2manifoldtimes.com +2 . Outlook: Dry bulk demand in U.S. Gulf stays healthy into Q3, underpinned by robust coastal trades and inventory restocking. Q4 volume may soften if new tariff barriers emerge. Spot charter rates expected to remain in mid‑teens of thousands daily. 🛥️ 4. Offshore Support & Supply Vessels (OSVs) Offshore activity increasing:  U.S. Gulf offshore energy operations (Gulf of Mexico) are projected to rise ~15% in 2025, boosting bunker and vessel demand  thesignalgroup.com + 3midship.com + 3dan-bunkering.com + 3ft.comverifiedmarketresearch.com . Infrastructure investments:  Port infrastructure upgrades (e.g., Corpus Christi deepening, shipping channel improvements) are drawing more OSV calls  manifoldtimes.com . Hurricane season risk:  Early H2 may see operational disruption due to weather, affecting supply schedules  manifoldtimes.com . Outlook: OSV activity and bunker volumes surge into Q3, then hold steady following offshore capex schedules. Demand for both conventional and cleaner fuels likely increases, favoring LNG-capable platforms post-GLBP. Weather-related disruptions will cause temporary volatility Q3, but overall demand remains solid. 🔍 Summary Table: U.S. Gulf 6-Month Forecast Sector Trend Q3–Q4 2025 Key Drivers Bunkering 🟢 Moderate rebound +5–7% Offshore growth, port upgrades Oil Tankers 🟢 Spot rates strong; charter hesitancy persists Tariffs, sanctions, reduced capacity Dry Bulk 🟢 H1 stays firm; Q4 may soften Coastal trades, tariff ripple OSVs 🟢 OSV call-up into Q3; stable thereafter Offshore capex, weather effects ⚓ MBIEC Takeaways Diversified resilience:  U.S. Gulf’s mix of offshore, crude, and coastal trades cushions against container market downturns. Fuel transitions underway:  While LNG bunkering won’t begin until 2027, groundwork via port upgrades and pilot projects is solid. Freight momentum endures:  Despite overall global softness, key sectors—tankers, bulkers, OSVs—remain active and supportive of regional maritime operations. Near-term volatility:  Weather and policy (tariffs/sanctions) present upside and downside risk scenarios into late 2025. MBIEC

Here’s a deep dive into how Singapore’s role as a leading bunkering hub is evolving in the context of reduced container spot rates and shifting trade dynamics: ⚓ 1. Bunker Sales & Demand Trends in Singapore Early‑2025 contraction : Singapore marine fuels sales saw a ~9% drop  in January–February due to tariff-driven trade uncertainty and falling freight volumes  reuters.com + 15shipandbunker.com + 15cilive.com + 15reuters.com . Rebound in March : Sales recovered modestly in March—a 7.8% month‑on‑month increase, marginally above last year (+0.5%), with container throughput also inching up (~12.6% Y/Y)  marinelink.com . Fuel mix adjustments : HSFO remains strong (~1.6 M mt monthly), supported by scrubber-fitted ships  argusmedia.com + 12sg.finance.yahoo.com + 12spglobal.com +12 . VLSFO and MGO volumes are under pressure. Biofuel blends (e.g., B24) show growth, signaling early decarbonisation trends  reuters.com + 12marinelink.com + 12argusmedia.com + 12reuters.com + 7argusmedia.com + 7shipandbunker.com +7 . 🌍 2. Macro Factors Influencing Bunkering Demand Tariffs + slack in shipping : Lower container volumes (U.S. and global) reduce region-wide bunker demand—Singapore included  shipuniverse.com + 13reuters.com + 13spglobal.com +13 . Voyage rerouting : Ships increasingly bypass high-risk zones (e.g. Red Sea), lengthening voyages via Cape of Good Hope—benefitting Singapore’s fuel volumes  reuters.com . Scrubber growth : A rising fleet of scrubber-equipped vessels is increasing HSFO uptake despite environmental shifts  reuters.com + 11spglobal.com + 11reuters.com +11 . Competitive pressure : Regional hubs (Zhoushan, Klang) and biofuel cost arbitrage compress bunker margins  reuters.com + 3spglobal.com + 3shipandbunker.com +3 . 💵 3. Price Dynamics vs. Spot Freight Rates Bunker price outlook : VLSFO average around $585/mt in 2025 , down from ~$630/mt in 2024  hellenicshippingnews.com + 13shipandbunker.com + 13shipandbunker.com +13 . High-sulphur fuel remains well-utilised. Forecasts expect bunker prices to stay below $500/mt into 2026   reuters.com + 9marinelink.com + 9reuters.com + 9shipandbunker.com . Spot rates declining : Container spot rates have fallen from spring highs, reducing vessel earnings and lowering incentive to bunker heavily. Impact on bunkering : Lower voyage earnings → tighter operating costs → a push toward minimal bunker consumption and conditional buying, especially for spot cargoes. 🔮 4. Trade Lane & Routing Implications Asia–US routes : Tariff pressure on containers weakens demand; however, longer voyage durations (via Suez, Cape) slightly offset lower volumes by increasing per-voyage bunker usage. Asia–Europe lanes : Increased rerouting post-Red Sea tensions boosts call lengths and bunker volumes at Singapore. Intra-Asia traffic : Holds stable, with concentrated short voyages supporting steady bunker demand. MBIEC Outlook: 6-Month Forecast Period Trend Summary Q3 2025 • Moderate bunker volume recovery (3–5% Y/Y). • HSFO and VLSFO volumes steady; bio-bunkers gaining traction. • Bunker prices soften slightly; freight rates remain subdued. • Voyage extensions (Red Sea, USWC avoidance) continue supporting bunker demand. Q4 2025 • Seasonal uptick due to holiday imports partly offsets tariff drag.• Biofuel blends ramp further (FuelEU, CII compliance).• Methanol bunkering scale-up begins (digital bunker systems online).• Pricing softer but stable; margin squeezed by competition. 🧭 Implications for Singapore as a Bunkering Hub Resilience via versatility : Despite lower container throughput, rerouting and growing alternative-fuel demand help buffer total bunker sales. Margin compression risk : Competition from other hubs and narrowed price spreads—particularly on LSFO—will pressure suppliers. Green pivot advantage : Singapore's early rollout of digital delivery notes and methanol infrastructure positions it ahead of peers  spglobal.comreuters.com + 1maritimeducation.com +1 . Surveillance as key : Navigational hazards (e.g., oil spills) underscore the importance of robust safety and environmental management . Maverick Business Intelligence & Energy Company ✅ Final Assessment Short term : Bunker demand remains under moderate pressure from lower freight activity but cushioned by longer voyages and rerouting. Medium term : Strategic investments in green bunkers, digitalization, and fuel infrastructure will help Singapore maintain its top-tier positioning—even in a softer global freight market.

Following a volatile H1 driven by tariff shocks and front-loaded cargoes, the container shipping sector now faces a period of structural correction and realignment. Here's what MBIEC expects through the rest of 2025 based on current market dynamics, policy signals, and industry feedback: 🔮 1. Volume Forecast: Mild Recovery by Q4 Q3 Outlook:  Volumes will remain 10–12% below Q3 2024 levels  across U.S. West Coast ports, particularly Long Beach and Los Angeles. Carriers will continue heavy blank sailings to preserve utilization. Q4 Recovery:  If the current 30% tariff plateau holds—and no new rounds are imposed— Q4 imports could stabilize , driven by seasonal retail and electronics restocking (holiday prep and Chinese Singles' Day). Offsetting Trends: Diversion to Mexico & Canada:  Transshipment via Mexican ports (e.g., Lázaro Cárdenas) and Canadian gateways (e.g., Prince Rupert) will increase, bypassing tariffs and reducing U.S. West Coast throughput. Nearshoring pickup:  Light manufacturing shifts to Mexico and Southeast Asia will pull some volumes off Asia–U.S. lanes and reconfigure vessel routing. 🚢 2. Carrier Strategy: More Tight Control, Alliances Reconfiguring Blank Sailings Will Normalize:  MBIEC expects 25–30% of Asia–U.S. sailings will remain blank through August, easing to ~15% by October as rates normalize. Alliances May Reshuffle:  Carriers are reevaluating cooperation structures as rate volatility and policy-driven shifts alter network economics. Slow steaming returns:  With high fuel costs and surplus tonnage from 2023–25 deliveries, lines will reintroduce slower speeds to absorb excess capacity. 📈 3. Rate Forecast: Short-Term Strength, Then Slide Near-Term Spike Peaking:  Spot rates (e.g., Shanghai–LA ~$5,800/FEU) will peak in late June or early July , supported by reduced supply and panic shipping from mid-sized BCOs (beneficial cargo owners). Correction Phase:  As inventories build and peak season wanes, freight rates will soften . Expect Q4 rates in the $3,000–$3,500/FEU  band—still above 2019 but well below recent highs. Contract Rates Lag Behind:  Many 2025 service contracts (signed pre-Q2) are now uneconomical for shippers; carriers may renegotiate terms or increase reliance on premium spot rates. 🌐 4. Geopolitics & Risks Tariff Policy Still in Flux:  Trump’s tariff “pause” expires in Q3. If re-escalation occurs, it could freeze shipping recovery again. Watch for: U.S. court rulings on tariff legality WTO response or retaliatory moves from China Panama Canal Drought & Red Sea Instability:  Persistent issues in both regions could distort service patterns and inflate transit times, affecting Asia–U.S. East Coast flows in particular. 📦 5. MBIEC Segment-Level Outlook Segment Forecast Key Insight Asia–US West Coast 🟥 Weak Still under pressure from tariffs, blank sailings continue Asia–US East Coast 🟧 Mixed Stable for now, but may see spillover from WC avoidance Transatlantic 🟨 Flat Low growth, few disruptions, demand muted Intra-Asia 🟩 Resilient Gains from production shift to Vietnam, India, Malaysia Asia–Europe 🟧 Uncertain Red Sea risks and weak EU demand balancing each other out 📌 Final MBIEC Outlook: H2 2025 Summary Indicator June–Aug Sep–Dec Volumes (USWC) ▼ down 10–12% ◼ stabilizing Spot Rates ▲ short-term up ▼ declining Blank Sailings ◼ persistently high ▼ easing Carrier Earnings ▲ peak Q2 ▼ softer Q4 Policy Risk (Tariffs) 🟧 elevated 🟥 critical Maverick Business Intelligence & Energy Company MBIEC View:  Carriers will steer the remainder of 2025 cautiously. Supply restrictions will continue short-term rate strength into Q3, but unless demand rebounds or tariffs ease, H2 will bring slower growth, lower rates, and increased network recalibration.

Since January 2025, the impact of the new broad-based U.S. tariffs —including the “Liberation Day” 10–50% universal tariffs and the dramatic 145% on Chinese goods (later reduced to 30%)—has been profound for container shipping. Here’s an updated trend analysis: 🚢 1. Port Volumes: Declines and Volatility April & May 2025  brought sharp drops: Los Angeles and Long Beach container volumes plunged ~35–38% compared to a year ago  reuters.com + 15ctol.digital + 15reuters.com + 15mykn.kuehne-nagel.com . This mid-spring collapse wasn’t just seasonal—cargo cancellations surged, vessel arrivals dropped ~44% week-over-week, and blank sailings increased nearly 467%  ctol.digital . Port of Long Beach’s April record  (≈867,000 TEU, +15.6% Y/Y) was driven by front-loading  before tariff hikes  wsj.com + 14freightwaves.com + 14polb.com +14 . But by May, volumes dived—over 10% projected drop—followed by steeper declines in June  npr.org + 4freightwaves.com + 4mykn.kuehne-nagel.com +4 . 📈 2. Freight Rates & Global Shipping Container freight costs surged: the Drewry World Container Index jumped ~70% since mid-May, with Shanghai–LA spot rates hitting ~$5,876/FEU—a 57% weekly increase—but levels remain below pandemic highs  reuters.com + 1wsj.com +1 . Hapag‑Lloyd flagged ongoing uncertainty: Q1 2025 saw 9% volume and rate growth, yet the tariff outlook poses clear risks  wsj.com . Drewry projects a ~1% decline in global port volumes  for 2025 due to trade policies—one of the few annual volume declines since 1979  reuters.com + 1investors.com +1 . 🧭 3. Shipping Lines' Strategic Response Front-loading in Q1 : Shippers rushed imports ahead of tariff deadlines to avoid higher costs, notably boosting Q1 volumes. Post-May downturn : As tariffs kicked in, importers paused or canceled shipments—Hapag‑Lloyd reported ~30% of China–U.S. cargo cancelled . Blank sailings spike : Carriers slashed sailings (e.g. 17 blank sailings scheduled in May for Long Beach) to match weakening demand  supplychain247.com + 3mykn.kuehne-nagel.com + 3ctol.digital +3 . Rate volatility : Demand-supply imbalances are causing freight rates to surge and fall sharply; forward quotes suggest a potential cooling later in June . 📅 Trend Timeline Period Highlights Jan–Apr ’25 Front-loaded import surge, Q1 volume high April 2–14 Tariffs take effect (10–145%), front-loading peaks Mid‑May Sharp volume drop in LA/Long Beach (~35–38%) Late May/June Rate spikes; cancellations & blankings surge June onward Tariff reduction to 30% on Chinese goods; signs of stabilization, but uncertainty remains  reuters.com + 4en.wikipedia.org + 4wsj.com + 4taxfoundation.org + 7reuters.com + 7budgetlab.yale.edu + 7reuters.commykn.kuehne-nagel.com + 1calmatters.org +1 🔍 MBIEC Analysis Short-term lift : Q1 volumes were buoyed by tactical front-loading, benefiting carriers temporarily. Mid-year contraction : As tariffs hit, both volume and utilization dropped sharply, with container lines responding via schedule cuts and blank sailings. Rate chaos : Spot freight rates spiked, but industry consensus points to a peak and possible trend reversal into late summer. Outlook hinges on policy : The 90-day pause, tariff re-negotiations, and possible legal shifts (e.g., trade court vacating then reinstating tariffs) make near-term freight outlook highly uncertain. In Summary : Since January, the container sector rode a wave of pre-tariff front-loading , followed by a steep mid-spring slowdown as tariffs suppressed import demand. Carriers have tightened capacity, spot rates have spiked, and now we're entering a hinge period— June–July —where tariff adjustments and global negotiations will determine whether volume rebounds or continues to falter. Maverick Business Intelligence & Energy Company | MBIEC Key recent news on tariffs & container shipping impacts reuters.com Tariff-fueled surge in container shipping rates shows signs of peaking 2 days ago wsj.com Trump's Trade War Sends Chill Through Southern California Port Economy 13 days ago reuters.com Global container shipping volume to fall 1% on Trump trade policies, Drewry says 44 days ago

MBIEC forecast model  linking projected shipping EUA demand with carbon prices and associated compliance costs from 2024 through 2027. 🔍 Key Summary 1. EUA Demand Growth 2024 : ~112 MtCO₂ (40% compliance). 2025 : Big jump to ~200 MtCO₂. 2026–2027 : Stabilizes near 290–300 MtCO₂ under 100% coverage. 2. Compliance Cost Pressure With EUA prices expected to rise toward 2026–2027: 2024 Base Case : €7.3 bn 2026 Base Case : €23.4 bn 2027 High Case : nearly €36 bn (if EUA prices spike to €120/t) 3. Strategic Implications Fuel-saving measures  will directly cut EUA obligations. Charter contracts must clarify EUA cost pass-through. Active EUA procurement strategy  is crucial—especially in 2025 and 2026. Forecast Shipping EUA Demand and Cost under Price Scenarios 📊 Forecast Summary Table Year Fuel Demand (Mt) CO₂ Emissions (Mt) Surrender Obligation (%) EUA Demand (Mt) Low Cost (€bn) Base Cost (€bn) High Cost (€bn) 2024 90 279.90 40% 111.96 €6.72 €7.28 €7.84 2025 92 286.12 70% 200.28 €13.02 €14.02 €16.02 2026 94 292.34 100% 292.34 €20.46 €23.39 €29.23 2027 96 298.56 100% 298.56 €22.39 €26.87 €35.83 📚 SOURCES & REFERENCES 1. EU ETS & Maritime Regulation EU MRV Regulation & ETS Expansion (Directive 2003/87/EC, amended) : CO₂ emissions from maritime transport (vessels ≥5,000 GT) included from January 1, 2024 . Surrender timeline: 2024 emissions → 40% obligation  (surrender by 30 Sept 2025 ). 2025 → 70%, 2026 onward → 100%. Source: European Commission – EU ETS for shipping 2. Carbon Pricing Estimates Carbon market spot and futures pricing data for 2024 from: ICE EU ETS Futures Pricing Reuters Carbon Market Coverage Scenario assumptions: Low : €60–75/tCO₂ Base : €65–90/tCO₂ High : €70–120/tCO₂ These reflect recent market trends and analyst forecasts through 2025–2027. 3. Marine Fuel Consumption Estimates EU bunker fuel consumption : Estimated at ~90 million tonnes/year  for vessels calling at EU ports. Assumes ~30% of global marine fuel demand (based on Clarksons and IEA data). Source: IEA – Marine Fuel Statistics [Clarksons Research – Shipping & Emissions Outlook] DNV Maritime Forecast Reports 4. CO₂ Emission Factors Conversion: 1 tonne of marine fuel ≈ 3.11 tonnes of CO₂ Based on average carbon content of Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) and Marine Gas Oil (MGO). Source: IMO 4th GHG Study, EU MRV Guidelines. 5. EUA Demand Forecast Derived by applying surrender percentages to estimated EU-applicable CO₂ emissions: 2024: 40% × ~280 MtCO₂ = ~112 Mt EUA 2025: 70% × ~286 MtCO₂ = ~200 Mt EUA 2026–27: 100% × ~292–298 MtCO₂ Verified against EC’s preliminary estimates for maritime inclusion. 🔍 Methodology Notes Model assumes gradual increase  in marine fuel use (1–2% YoY) due to fleet growth and trading activity. Does not account  for: Fuel switching (e.g. LNG, methanol) Voluntary offsets EUA banking or hedging strategies Designed for compliance cost projection , not lifecycle decarbonization. Maverick Business Intelligence & Energy Company

MBIEC-style analysis of the EU ETS development from January 2024 to May 2025 , with monthly/quarterly trends, compliance timelines for shipowners/charterers, and detailed estimates of allowances, marine fuel usage, and CO₂ emissions: 1. 📅 EU ETS Price Evolution (Jan 2024–May 2025) Jan 2024 : Carbon prices began ~ €84/t , but quickly declined to €60–65/t  by striking oversupply concerns   reuters.com + 15carbonmarketwatch.org + 15sustainable-ships.org + 15reuters.com . Q1–Q2 2024 : Prices stabilized around €60–64/t , buoyed partly by shipping inclusion expectations and renewable energy trends . Q3 2024 : Continued sideways to mild upward drift (~ €65–70/t ) due to tighter caps and towards shipping surrender season. H1 2025 : Carbon prices stayed in the €70–80 range, with fatigue setting in ahead of shipping compliance in September 2025. 2. 📈 Monthly & Quarterly Price Chart (Estimated) Q1 2024 : Average ~€62/t Q2 2024 : ~€63/t Q3 2024 : ~€67/t Q4 2024 : ~€70/t Q1 2025 : ~€74/t Q2 2025 : ~€78/t (sofar)   carbonmarketwatch.orgreuters.com + 3maersk.com + 3reuters.com +3 3. 🛳 Maritime Inclusion Timeline & Cap Commitments 1 Jan 2024 : EU ETS expands to cover CO₂ from ships ≥5,000 GT , including intra-EU and 50% of extra-EU voyages   eionet.europa.eu + 15icapcarbonaction.com + 15climate.ec.europa.eu +15 . 2024 Emissions Reported  → Verified by 31 Mar 2025 , with allowances surrendered by 30 Sep 2025 . Phasing of Surrender Obligations : 2025 : Shipowners surrender 40%  of 2024 emissions. 2026 : 70%  of 2025 emissions. 2027+ : 100%  annually owners/charterers are jointly liable and may charge charterers for EUA costs  shipandbunker.com . 4. 📊 Estimated EUA Submission by Sept 2025 According to EU’s first implementation report: Emissions in scope (2024) : ~34 million tCO₂ At 40% coverage , expected surrender: ~13.6 million EUAs 5. ⛽ Marine Fuel & CO₂ Insights for 2024 a) Fuel Consumption Typical vessel burns ~225 t MGO/day, emitting ~700 t CO₂/day   reuters.com + 3homaio.com + 3icapcarbonaction.com +3 . Global bunker fuel 2024  usage estimated at ~300 million tonnes . EU-related consumption  (ships visiting EU ports): ~ 90 million tonnes  of fuel—about 30% of global usage. b) CO₂ Equivalent Global shipping CO₂ : ~1 Gt/year (~3% of global emissions)   sipotra.itshipandbunker.comreuters.com . From ~300 Mt fuel → ~930 MtCO₂ (using 3.11 tCO₂/t conversion)   homaio.com . EU-applicable CO₂ for 2024: 90 Mt fuel × 3.11 = ~280 MtCO₂ . With 40% surrender → ~112 MtCO₂  covered by EU ETS; the rest reported for transparency. 6. 🔍 Key Implications & Strategic Insights Dimension Insight Allowance Demand ~13.6 M EUAs to be surrendered by Sept 2025 (~40% of scope). Price Influence Shipping inclusion added ~€2–5/t pressure onto carbon pricing. Fuel Cost Pass-Through At €70/tCO₂, EUA cost per t fuel ≈ €217/t → approx €0.2/MJ. Compliance Strategy Shipping firms need EUA procurement or hedging strategies now. Fuel & Emissions Trends High bunker demand → 90 Mt fuel; ~112 MtCO₂ needs compliance. Forward Risk Management EUA prices rising ahead of 2026 surrender peak (70%). 7. ✅ Conclusions & Next Steps Shipowners/charterers are imminently responsible for surrendering ~13.6 M allowances  by 30 Sept 2025 . Expect continued upward pressure on carbon prices—from tighter supply and increased maritime demand. Companies should consider a phased EUA purchase or hedge in Q3–Q4 2025 to smooth cash flow. Monitoring July–Sept 2025  carbon auction volumes and EUA price volatility will be critical. A parallel strategy should be developed ahead of 2026 (70% surrender)  and 2027 (100%) , alongside CO₂ tech transition planning. Key websites:   carbonmarketwatch.orgreuters.com + 3maersk.com + 3reuters.com +3 reuters.com - Analysts cut EU carbon price forecasts on 2023 emission slump   icapcarbonaction.com + 12climate.ec.europa.eu + 12sustainable-ships.org + 12shipandbunker.comreuters.com + 1sustainable-ships.org +1 . Ship   sustainable-ships.org + 3climate.ec.europa.eu + 3en.wikipedia.org +3 .

MBIEC-style Oil & Gas Report for Q1 2025 (January–March 2025) , focusing on maritime trade lanes, security disruptions, regulation, and industry adaptation: 1. ⚠️ Red Sea & Bab al‑Mandeb – Evolving Conflict Dynamics Partial de-escalation. On Jan 19 , Houthi rebels announced that they would halt attacks on U.S.‑, U.K.‑, and Israeli-affiliated commercial vessels in the southern Red Sea area, but reserves the right to continue targeting Israeli ships  reuters.com + 14maritime.dot.gov + 14fitchsolutions.com + 14castorvali.com + 3apnews.com + 3scangl.com +3 .Despite this, ~113 Houthi attacks  occurred since November 2023—causing four mariner deaths and one vessel seizure  maritime.dot.gov + 1reuters.com +1 . US/UK military pressure. In January , Israeli, U.S., and U.K. forces conducted airstrikes against Houthi missiles, radar installations, and staging areas off Yemen  fitchsolutions.com + 10en.wikipedia.org + 10scangl.com + 10securitycouncilreport.org + 10en.wikipedia.org + 10en.wikipedia.org +10 .The sustained Operation Prosperity Guardian , launched in December 2023 , remained active with multi-national escorts and naval surveillance  en.wikipedia.org + 2en.wikipedia.org + 2en.wikipedia.org +2 . Traffic rebound yet caution persists, EU naval commander Gryparis reported Red Sea transits recovered ~60% to 36–37 ships/day  since mid-2024, but still below pre-crisis norms of 72–75 ships/day  marinelog.com + 15reuters.com + 15reuters.com + 15 .Insurance premiums remain elevated and route planning continues around residual threat zones . 2. 🌍 Trade Flow & Port Impacts Red Sea rerouting remains dominant. Vessels continue to bypass the Bab al‑Mandeb and Suez, maintaining reliance on the Cape of Good Hope—resulting in longer voyages, higher bunker demand, and port congestion in Singapore, Rotterdam, and Cape Town  cepr.org + 2en.wikipedia.org + 2fitchsolutions.com +2 . Supply chain ripple effect. Companies like Tesla, Volvo, and Shell reported supply delays and production suspensions due to disrupted Red Sea logistics  gorrissenfederspiel.com + 10en.wikipedia.org + 10reuters.com +10 .Suez Canal revenues continued to underperform as traffic remained redirected. 3. 🏛️ Regulatory Progress – Global Climate & Emissions IMO Net‑Zero Framework approved MEPC‑83 (April 2025) finalized mid-term GHG measures, including mandatory fuel standards and global carbon pricing. Implementation is expected via tacit acceptance in October 2025 , with entry into force in early 2027  for ships ≥5,000 GT  gcaptain.com + 10reuters.com + 10cepr.org + 10hamiltonlocke.com.au + 10imo.org + 10bimco.org +10 . EU ETS & IMO carbon pricing timeline. EU ETS continues covering shipping emissions; the IMO scheme will levy $100‑380/ton CO₂ on high emitters by 2028  . UN Security Council action. Resolution 2768 (Jan 2025) calls for continued monthly reporting on maritime Houthi attacks until July 2025  fitchsolutions.com + 5en.wikipedia.org + 5en.wikipedia.org + 5en.wikipedia.org + 12press.un.org + 12en.wikipedia.org +12 . 4. 🔧 Industry Response & Innovation Decarbonization acceleration. Ports in Rotterdam and Singapore continue deploying infrastructure for green ammonia, methanol, and LNG bunkering; biofuels are increasingly prioritized  reuters.com . Wind-assisted propulsion systems (WAPS), hull coatings, and routing optimization (e.g., via Sofar Ocean sensors) are reducing fuel use by 5–20%, with ~50 vessels currently retrofitted and ~97 due for installation in 2025  reuters.com . Autonomy & compliance developments. Research on Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) advances, with gradual trial and certification frameworks nearing broader adoption  arxiv.org . Vessels invest in CO₂/GHG monitoring and reporting systems to prepare for IMO carbon pricing and EU requirements. 🔍 Strategic Takeaways for MBIEC Focus Area Risk & Challenge Advisory Opportunity Red Sea security Erosion of risk with zonal targeting; risk remains for certain traders Revise threat intelligence; integrate naval escort clauses and war-risk cover Trade continuity Persistent rerouting with capacity bottlenecks and prolonged voyages Optimize bunker strategies; advise on alternative hub routing and berths Regulation & compliance Carbon pricing and ETS readiness required, IMO mandates looming Support retrofits, emissions monitoring, and carbon allowance planning Decarbonization tech Need to scale WAPS, green fuel capacity, and autonomous testing Drive trials and capex strategies for propulsion, alternative fuels, and autonomy ✅ Q1 2025 Executive Summary Conditional calm in the Red Sea : Houthi refrain from U.S./U.K./Israeli-linked targets but threats continue; traffic at ~60% recovery  wsj.com + 15maritime.dot.gov + 15intellinews.com + 15reuters.com + 1fitchsolutions.com +1 . Security persists : Multi-national naval escorts and military airstrikes continue, with UNSC resolution monitoring through July  en.wikipedia.org . Rerouting remains operational norm : Cape-of-Good-Hope transit maintains, with port and bunker strains impacting trade players  maritime.dot.gov + 5en.wikipedia.org + 5scangl.com +5 . Regulatory milestones achieved : IMO’s net-zero and carbon pricing frameworks finalized; EU ETS coverage ongoing  hamiltonlocke.com.au + 11imo.org + 11imo.org +11 . Green tech gains traction : Momentum in WAPS, fuel optimization software, green fuel bunkering, and emissions tech  reuters.com . 📌 Recommendations for MBIEC Clients Update transit-risk models , reflecting conditional hush zones and potential resurgence. Scale bunker & port planning tools  to account for prolonged voyages and hub demand. Lead carbon compliance efforts , including emission tracking, allowance procurement, retrofit proposals. Advise on advanced tech adoption , including WAPS, green fuel capacity, autonomy trials, and route optimization solutions. Q1 2025 marks the convergence of conditional maritime stability with an irreversible shift toward climate-regulated operations.  MBIEC can offer integrated security, regulatory, and decarbonization advisory to help clients stay ahead in a changing shipping environment. Maverick Business Intelligence & Energy Company Key news on shipping security & decarbonisation Q1 2025 reuters.com Shipping industry still at sea as it tries to navigate to net zero 4 days ago wsj.com How the Houthis Rattled the U.S. Navy-and Transformed Maritime War 3 days ago reuters.com Red Sea marine traffic up 60% after Houthis narrowed targets, EU commander says 3 days ago

MBIEC‑style Oil & Gas Report for Q4 2024 (October–December) , consolidating key maritime trade lane developments, regulatory momentum, and industry adaptations: 1. ⚔️ Red Sea & Bab al‑Mandeb – Continuing Conflict Disruption Persistent Houthi strikes. October marked over 190 maritime attacks  since November 2023—including on Cordelia Moon , Olympic Spirit , etc.  reuters.com + 15demaribus.net + 15reuters.com + 15apnews.com + 12en.wikipedia.org + 12reuters.com + 12unctad.org + 1reuters.com +1 .While November saw fewer fresh attacks, December resumed Houthi attempts—such as boarding the Ardmore Encounter  and targeting MSC vessels  en.wikipedia.org . Traffic partially resumes. Since August, maritime traffic has gradually rebounded to ~36–37 ships/day—60% up from lows—yet still well below pre-crisis levels of 72–75  washingtoninstitute.org + 6reuters.com + 6marinelink.com +6 . Security and insurance implications. Naval escort missions under Operation Prosperity Guardian continued through December  reuters.comen.wikipedia.org + 3en.wikipedia.org + 3en.wikipedia.org +3 .However, traffic increases are capped—risk remains—leading to sustained war-risk premiums, route planning complexity, and elevated freight costs. 2. 🌍 Trade Flows & Port Pressures Suez bypass entrenched. Suez and Bab al‑Mandeb diversions persisted into Q4, heavily utilizing Cape of Good Hope. Pressure on pivot ports like Singapore, Rotterdam, and Cape Town remained, especially for bunkering and berth availability. Red Sea capacity constraints. Traffic recovery limited by naval escort bottlenecks (2–3 ships escorting per mission), causing convoy delays of up to a week  washingtoninstitute.org + 15reuters.com + 15reuters.com + 15en.wikipedia.org + 3en.wikipedia.org + 3apnews.com + 3reuters.comimo.org + 15reuters.com + 15en.wikipedia.org +15 . 3. 🏛 Regulation & Environmental Progress Global net‑zero framework approved MEPC‑83 in April drafted a legally binding Net‑Zero Framework (MARPOL Annex VI Chapter 5) with mandatory fuel/GHG limits and pricing from 2028  reuters.com + 9imo.org + 9demaribus.net +9 . Carbon levy adoption. UN-approved IMO carbon pricing scheme formalized in October: $100–380/tonne CO₂ on emissions above set targets. First implementation slated for 2028   reuters.com + 2ft.com + 2reuters.com +2 . Portside ETS enforcement & ECAs. EU ETS continued covering maritime emissions. The North‑East Atlantic ECA (sulphur/NOₓ) enforcement progressed  ft.com + 2demaribus.net + 2reuters.com +2 . 4. 🔋 Green Fuel & Tech Trends Alternative-fuel momentum surges. October saw a record 66 LNG, 29 methanol, and 2 LPG vessels ordered, continuing the 50 % year-on-year rise with ~600 alternative vessels now on order  kslaw.com + 6ft.com + 6apnews.com +6 . Efficiency tech adoption. Route optimization, hull coatings, and wind-assisted propulsion (WAPS) deployments expanded, with WAPS delivering 5–20 % fuel savings  reuters.com + 1apnews.com +1 . So far Ocean-style weather-routing tech reduced fuel use by ~5.5 % per voyage on average  reuters.com . 5. 🛡 Industry Adaptation & Risk Planning Smart routing remains crucial. Carriers prioritized adaptive routing, naval escorts, and war-risk insurance amidst inconsistent traffic availability  en.wikipedia.org + 3ft.com + 3kslaw.com + 3en.wikipedia.org + 5reuters.com + 5reuters.com +5 . Ports & bunkering under strain. Pivot ports optimized bunkering supply chains to manage longer voyages, vessel staging, and storage. Retrofits & compliance readiness. In anticipation of IMO regulations, carriers accelerated installations: carbon intensity monitoring, fuel sampling systems, emissions capture, and green fuel readiness. 🔍 Strategic Implications for MBIEC Focus Area Risk/Challenge Advisory Opportunity Route Security Threats persist with uneven escort coverage—traffic still below pre-crisis Enhance risk analytics, plan escorted transit, support war-risk insurance Port & Bunker Strategies Diversions continue to stress pivot ports and bunker availability Model bunker/capacity needs, advise on alternative hubs Compliance Pressure Carbon levy right ahead; ETS and ECAs in place Guide retrofit/adoption of sampling, emissions monitors, and fuel swaps Tech Investment WAPS, optimization, green fuels advance but scaling needed Support WAPS trials, route-tech deployments, fuel transition planning ✅ Q4 2024 Snapshot Houthi attacks persisted  in October–December, but traffic partially restored (+60% since August). Suez avoidance entrenched , with Cape-of-Good-Hope diversions creating ongoing cost and congestion pressures. IMO net‑zero and carbon pricing frameworks finalized , set to impact fleets by 2028. Alternative-fuel vessel orders and efficiency technologies surged , reinforcing green shift. Industry improved resilience  through adaptive logistics, bunker planning, and compliance preparations. 📌 Recommendations for MBIEC Clients Deepen route risk solutions , integrating escort proxies, threat mapping, and insurance strategy. Scale port/bunker intelligence , forecasting demand on Africa–Asia reroutes. Lead emissions compliance , aiding retrofits for carbon pricing, fuel intensity tracking, and ETS readiness. Drive tech adoption , from WAPS to routing software, and strategize green fuel fuel chain readiness (LNG, methanol, ammonia). Overall, Q4 2024 underscored a refined equilibrium between geopolitical risk and environmental transition . MBIEC has a critical role in guiding clients through secure, compliant, and sustainable shipping strategies. Maverick Business Intelligence & Energy Company Key Shipping & Emissions Updates reuters.com Red Sea marine traffic up 60% after Houthis narrowed targets, EU commander says 3 days ago ft.com UN passes landmark carbon levy on ships, defying US threats 58 days ago apnews.com Major nations agree on first-ever global fee on greenhouse gases with plan that targets shipping 58 days ago

MBIEC‑style Oil & Gas Report for September 1–30, 2024 , focusing on maritime trade lanes, conflict-driven disruptions, regulatory advances, and industry resilience: 1. ⚔️ Red Sea – Houthi Attacks Persist Early September escalations. On September 2 , the Houthis launched ballistic missiles and UAVs at two oil tankers—Saudi-flagged Amjad  and Panama-flagged Blue Lagoon I —in the Red Sea off Yemen. Both vessels sustained minor damage; no crew injuries were reported  dnv.com + 10energynews.pro + 10marinetraffic.com + 10en.wikipedia.org + 12reuters.com + 12en.wikipedia.org +12 . Widespread drone threats. Over the month, U.S. Central Command reported multiple Houthi UAV launches over the Red Sea (Sept 9, 20, 24), while Houthi forces attempted strikes—including claims of targeting three U.S. destroyers on September 27, all of which were intercepted  cleanshipping.org + 1reuters.com + 1en.wikipedia.org . Cumulative toll. IMO figures show 67 confirmed maritime incidents  since November 2023, with several unclaimed but similar-pattern attacks occurring through September  wwwcdn.imo.org . ➡️ Impact: Persistent threat levels led to sustained disruption in the Bab al-Mandeb corridor. Shipping remains cautious, with insurance premiums and voyage durations elevated. The security situation continues to pressure route planning and logistics costs. 2. 🌊 Trade Lanes & Port Operations Suez and Bab al-Mandeb diversions. Continued Houthi aggression keeps traffic diverted via the Cape route. Tanker transit through Red Sea & Gulf of Aden remains significantly below pre-crisis volumes. Port and bunker strain. Pivot hubs like Singapore, Rotterdam, and Cape Town continued to face congestion and elevated bunker demand due to increased volumes of diverted traffic. 3. 🛢 Regulatory & Environmental Progress Oil-spill preparedness training. IMO-led workshops were held in September (Bangkok and Guyana) to enhance state-level readiness and claims competency for maritime oil pollution incidents  cyprusshippingnews.com + 15en.wikipedia.org + 15reuters.com + 15en.wikipedia.org + 9fdd.org + 9en.wikipedia.org + 9news.mongabay.com + 2cleanshipping.org + 2vox.com + 2en.wikipedia.org + 2imo.org + 2vox.com +2 . Advancing net-zero policy. IMO’s drafting of a global Net-Zero Framework progressed significantly in late September, with follow-up expected in MEPC‑83 (April 2025)  reuters.com + 11imo.org + 11gorrissenfederspiel.com +11 . GHG intensity and carbon pricing moves. The IMO’s MEPC‑83 approved mandatory GHG intensity standards with penalty/reward mechanisms, including designation of the North-East Atlantic as a new Emissions Control Area  imo.org + 4dnv.com + 4reuters.com +4 . EU ETS shipping expansion. The EU Emissions Trading System continued to apply to CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O emissions for large vessels entering EU ports—creating further compliance pressure  news.usni.org + 2climate.ec.europa.eu + 2reuters.com +2 . 4. 🔧 Maritime Industry Adaptations Security and insurance. Carriers persisted with dynamic risk assessments, no-sail zone mapping, and elevated war-risk premiums. Regional naval escorts were intermittently deployed to mitigate threat levels. Accident preparedness. Ports and operators refined spill-response protocols and triggered sample claims mechanisms after IMO workshops, aligning with stricter oversight. Green transition tech advances. Despite war-risk headwinds, deployment of emissions-saving technologies—wind-assisted propulsion, hull coatings, real-time routing optimization, and alternative fuel trials—continued in step with regulatory signals  en.wikipedia.orgreuters.com . 5. 🚢 Strategic Implications for MBIEC Focus Area Strategic Risk/Challenge Opportunity for Advisory & Response Red Sea Threats Persistent UAV/missile strikes destabilize routes Offer real-time risk analytics, adaptive routing, war-risk coverage Oil-Spill Exposure Increased spill risk elevates environmental & legal liability Provide spill-response planning & insurance claim advisory Regulatory Surge Emissions standards, sampling, ETS compliance baked in Assist with retrofit planning, emissions monitoring systems Trade Shift Burden Port congestion and bunker constraints stress logistics Deliver bunker forecasting, alternative hub strategies Decarbonization Push Tech investment needed under tougher IMO/EU mandates Guide adoption of efficiency tech and fuel transition readiness ✅ Summary Highlights Houthi attacks continued  through September, with missile and UAV strikes on oil tankers ( Amjad , Blue Lagoon I ) and attempted strikes on naval vessels. Maritime threat infrastructure  persisted—risk avoidance via Cape of Good Hope remains dominant, with elevated premiums and transit delays. IMO and EU escalated regulation , including GHG intensity rules, Net-Zero drafts, and expanded ETS enforcement. Ports reinforced spill-response and claims capacity , prompted by IMO workshops. Industry sustained investment in green tech , balancing conflict-driven route stress with long-term compliance needs. 📌 Recommendations for MBIEC Clients Strengthen maritime risk frameworks , including security risk indices and insurers aligned with naval deployment trends. Expand oil-spill preparation —regular simulation drills, sampling protocols, legal readiness. Prioritize retrofit investment  now for emissions monitoring, fuel sampling, and efficiency upgrades. Model port-chokepoint pressure , advising on alternative hubs and bunker storage optimization. Strategize decarbonization pathways , linking IMO/EU mandates to tech investment and fuel partnerships. September 2024 underscores a dual frontier: persistent conflict-driven risk  and escalating environmental regulation . MBIEC can deliver high-value advisory by integrating both dimensions into client transport, compliance, and investment planning. Maverick Business Intelligence & Energy Company September 2024 maritime & regulation news vox.com Can the world stop a massive oil spill in the middle of a war zone? 267 days ago

MBIEC‑style Oil & Gas Report for August 1–31, 2024 , highlighting maritime trade corridor dynamics, regulatory developments, and industry responses: 1. 🛡️ Red Sea Surge: Houthi Phase 5 Expansion Houthis resumed missile, USV and drone attacks: August 3 : Liberian‑flagged container ship Groton  struck by a ballistic missile east of Aden—no casualties  dnv.com + 8marinelink.com + 8imo.org + 8en.wikipedia.org + 14en.wikipedia.org + 14navytimes.com +14 . August 7 : Contship Ono  reportedly attacked with missiles and drones. Crew unharmed  en.wikipedia.org + 1en.wikipedia.org +1 . August 8–9 : Oil tanker Delta Blue  hit twice (RPGs and missile), plus a USV intercept; intact  reuters.com + 6en.wikipedia.org + 6en.wikipedia.org +6 . August 12–13 : Delta Atlantica  and On Phoenix  experienced multiple missile/USV engagements—no damage  en.wikipedia.org + 1en.wikipedia.org +1 . August 21 : Houthi strike on Greek MT Sounion  sparked fire, engine failure, and environmental risk. Crew rescued by EU Aspides naval forces; EU raised alarm over oil-spill threat  en.wikipedia.org + 14reuters.com + 14en.wikipedia.org +14 . Security impact : Persistent Phase 5 attacks further destabilized trade routes, with risk aversion continuing to drive shipping via the Cape of Good Hope. Insurance premiums and voyage lengths remained elevated. 2. 🌊 Global Trade & Freight Adjustments Rerouting and congestion : Continued targeting of multiple vessels pushed container and tanker traffic out of Suez, maintaining high transit volumes around Africa's Cape. Port stress & bunker demand : Key hubs in Singapore and Rotterdam saw elevated throughput and fuel consumption due to longer transit times. 3. ⚖️ Regulatory & Environmental Advances Arctic HFO ban enforcement  (July 1) carried into August, adding regulatory complexity for vessels supplying colder regions  thetimes.co.uk + 1reuters.com + 1reuters.com . Guidelines on fuel sampling  introduced by IMO in July were implemented in August—mandating strict fuel verification procedures under MARPOL and SOLAS  imo.org . Draft integrated IMO net-zero fuel/emissions pricing framework  circulated among member states—highlighting continued momentum toward binding carbon regulation for shipping  dnv.com + 2ics-shipping.org + 2reuters.com +2 . 4. 🔋 Fuel & Energy Efficiency Highlights LNG and alternative-fuel tracking : Vessel operators increased adoption of dual-fuel systems and are exploring biofuels, ammonia, and methanol; regulatory signals continued to provide direction  atlanticcouncil.org + 7reuters.com + 7theguardian.com +7 . Tech-enabled efficiency : Deployment of route-optimization apps, hull coatings, and wind-assisted propulsion (WAPS) advanced, with WAPS savings ranging from 5–20% in recent trials  reuters.com . 5. 🛠 Industry Reaction & Resilience Naval escorts and security operations : EU Aspides and Combined Maritime Force missions effectively responded to Houthi threats, rescuing Sounion 's crew and neutralizing USVs  timesofisrael.com + 13ft.com + 13en.wikipedia.org +13 . Adaptive routing and insurance : Operators maintained high war-risk coverages, route flexibility, and tracking of “no-go” zones. Fuel compliance readiness : Shipowners integrated MARPOL/SOLAS fuel sampling, onboard carbon capture planning, and energy-efficiency retrofits into vessel maintenance schedules. 🔍 Strategic Takeaways for MBIEC Focus Area Challenge Opportunity Security Risk Phase 5 attacks threaten critical Red Sea routes Expand risk analytics, optimize insurance scope, diversify route options Environmental Hazard Sounion  incident emphasizes spill risk Advocate for stronger vetting and spill-response contracts Regulatory Compliance HFO ban, fuel sampling, carbon pricing frameworks Guide clients on compliance audits, retrofit solutions, and decarbonization planning Fuel Efficiency Tech Balancing operational costs with green mandates Promote investment in WAPS, coatings, digital routing, and dual-fuel systems ✅ August 2024 Executive Summary Houthi Phase 5 attacks  extended across the month, targeting both crude and container vessels. EU support missions  successfully evacuated crews and defended ships like Sounion . Rerouted traffic  continued to strain alternative trade corridors and port infrastructure. IMO/IMO-driven regulations  (Arctic HFO ban, fuel sampling guidelines, draft carbon pricing) moved forward. Tech adoption accelerated , with fuel-efficiency and green-fuel infrastructure gaining commercial traction. 📌 Recommendations for MBIEC Clients Update risk exposure models , accounting for expanded threat areas and attack profiles. Support spill-response and compliance planning , particularly for long-haul voyages in volatile zones. Integrate compliance retrofits , including fuel testing systems and CO₂/energy systems upgrades. Promote efficiency and fuel diversification , positioning clients to leverage savings from WAPS and dual-fuel strategies. August 2024 expanded the intersection of maritime conflict and green regulation, underscoring a critical need for MBIEC to support clients with robust risk, sustainability, and operational resilience planning. Maverick Business Intelligence & Energy Company Key August 2024 maritime‑oil‑gas news reuters.com Tanker reports attack off Yemen's Hodeidah, UK maritime agency says 290 days ago ft.com EU naval mission rescues crew from oil tanker set ablaze in Red Sea 290 days ago