Q4 2024 Maritime Oil & Gas Summary

FD&A Department
Jan 2
3 min read

MBIEC‑style Oil & Gas Report for Q4 2024 (October–December), consolidating key maritime trade lane developments, regulatory momentum, and industry adaptations:

1. ⚔️ Red Sea & Bab al‑Mandeb – Continuing Conflict Disruption

Persistent Houthi strikes. October marked over 190 maritime attacks since November 2023—including on Cordelia Moon, Olympic Spirit, etc. reuters.com +15demaribus.net +15reuters.com +15apnews.com +12en.wikipedia.org +12reuters.com +12unctad.org +1reuters.com +1.While November saw fewer fresh attacks, December resumed Houthi attempts—such as boarding the Ardmore Encounter and targeting MSC vessels en.wikipedia.org.
Traffic partially resumes. Since August, maritime traffic has gradually rebounded to ~36–37 ships/day—60% up from lows—yet still well below pre-crisis levels of 72–75 washingtoninstitute.org +6reuters.com +6marinelink.com +6.
Security and insurance implications. Naval escort missions under Operation Prosperity Guardian continued through December reuters.comen.wikipedia.org +3en.wikipedia.org +3en.wikipedia.org +3.However, traffic increases are capped—risk remains—leading to sustained war-risk premiums, route planning complexity, and elevated freight costs.

2. 🌍 Trade Flows & Port Pressures

Suez bypass entrenched. Suez and Bab al‑Mandeb diversions persisted into Q4, heavily utilizing Cape of Good Hope. Pressure on pivot ports like Singapore, Rotterdam, and Cape Town remained, especially for bunkering and berth availability.
Red Sea capacity constraints. Traffic recovery limited by naval escort bottlenecks (2–3 ships escorting per mission), causing convoy delays of up to a week washingtoninstitute.org +15reuters.com +15reuters.com +15en.wikipedia.org +3en.wikipedia.org +3apnews.com +3reuters.comimo.org +15reuters.com +15en.wikipedia.org +15.

3. 🏛 Regulation & Environmental Progress

Global net‑zero framework approvedMEPC‑83 in April drafted a legally binding Net‑Zero Framework (MARPOL Annex VI Chapter 5) with mandatory fuel/GHG limits and pricing from 2028 reuters.com +9imo.org +9demaribus.net +9.
Carbon levy adoption. UN-approved IMO carbon pricing scheme formalized in October: $100–380/tonne CO₂ on emissions above set targets. First implementation slated for 2028 reuters.com +2ft.com +2reuters.com +2.
Portside ETS enforcement & ECAs. EU ETS continued covering maritime emissions. The North‑East Atlantic ECA (sulphur/NOₓ) enforcement progressed ft.com +2demaribus.net +2reuters.com +2.

4. 🔋 Green Fuel & Tech Trends

Alternative-fuel momentum surges. October saw a record 66 LNG, 29 methanol, and 2 LPG vessels ordered, continuing the 50 % year-on-year rise with ~600 alternative vessels now on order kslaw.com +6ft.com +6apnews.com +6.
Efficiency tech adoption. Route optimization, hull coatings, and wind-assisted propulsion (WAPS) deployments expanded, with WAPS delivering 5–20 % fuel savings reuters.com +1apnews.com +1. So far Ocean-style weather-routing tech reduced fuel use by ~5.5 % per voyage on average reuters.com.

5. 🛡 Industry Adaptation & Risk Planning

Smart routing remains crucial. Carriers prioritized adaptive routing, naval escorts, and war-risk insurance amidst inconsistent traffic availability en.wikipedia.org +3ft.com +3kslaw.com +3en.wikipedia.org +5reuters.com +5reuters.com +5.
Ports & bunkering under strain. Pivot ports optimized bunkering supply chains to manage longer voyages, vessel staging, and storage.
Retrofits & compliance readiness. In anticipation of IMO regulations, carriers accelerated installations: carbon intensity monitoring, fuel sampling systems, emissions capture, and green fuel readiness.

🔍 Strategic Implications for MBIEC

Focus Area	Risk/Challenge	Advisory Opportunity
Route Security	Threats persist with uneven escort coverage—traffic still below pre-crisis	Enhance risk analytics, plan escorted transit, support war-risk insurance
Port & Bunker Strategies	Diversions continue to stress pivot ports and bunker availability	Model bunker/capacity needs, advise on alternative hubs
Compliance Pressure	Carbon levy right ahead; ETS and ECAs in place	Guide retrofit/adoption of sampling, emissions monitors, and fuel swaps
Tech Investment	WAPS, optimization, green fuels advance but scaling needed	Support WAPS trials, route-tech deployments, fuel transition planning

✅ Q4 2024 Snapshot

Houthi attacks persisted in October–December, but traffic partially restored (+60% since August).
Suez avoidance entrenched, with Cape-of-Good-Hope diversions creating ongoing cost and congestion pressures.
IMO net‑zero and carbon pricing frameworks finalized, set to impact fleets by 2028.
Alternative-fuel vessel orders and efficiency technologies surged, reinforcing green shift.
Industry improved resilience through adaptive logistics, bunker planning, and compliance preparations.

📌 Recommendations for MBIEC Clients

Deepen route risk solutions, integrating escort proxies, threat mapping, and insurance strategy.
Scale port/bunker intelligence, forecasting demand on Africa–Asia reroutes.
Lead emissions compliance, aiding retrofits for carbon pricing, fuel intensity tracking, and ETS readiness.
Drive tech adoption, from WAPS to routing software, and strategize green fuel fuel chain readiness (LNG, methanol, ammonia).

Overall, Q4 2024 underscored a refined equilibrium between geopolitical risk and environmental transition. MBIEC has a critical role in guiding clients through secure, compliant, and sustainable shipping strategies.