Container Shipping Summary | January –May 2025

FD&A Department
May 23
3 min read

Since January 2025, the impact of the new broad-based U.S. tariffs—including the “Liberation Day” 10–50% universal tariffs and the dramatic 145% on Chinese goods (later reduced to 30%)—has been profound for container shipping. Here’s an updated trend analysis:

🚢 1. Port Volumes: Declines and Volatility

April & May 2025 brought sharp drops: Los Angeles and Long Beach container volumes plunged ~35–38% compared to a year ago reuters.com +15ctol.digital +15reuters.com +15mykn.kuehne-nagel.com.
This mid-spring collapse wasn’t just seasonal—cargo cancellations surged, vessel arrivals dropped ~44% week-over-week, and blank sailings increased nearly 467% ctol.digital.
Port of Long Beach’s April record (≈867,000 TEU, +15.6% Y/Y) was driven by front-loading before tariff hikes wsj.com +14freightwaves.com +14polb.com +14.
But by May, volumes dived—over 10% projected drop—followed by steeper declines in June npr.org +4freightwaves.com +4mykn.kuehne-nagel.com +4.

📈 2. Freight Rates & Global Shipping

Container freight costs surged: the Drewry World Container Index jumped ~70% since mid-May, with Shanghai–LA spot rates hitting ~$5,876/FEU—a 57% weekly increase—but levels remain below pandemic highs reuters.com +1wsj.com +1.
Hapag‑Lloyd flagged ongoing uncertainty: Q1 2025 saw 9% volume and rate growth, yet the tariff outlook poses clear risks wsj.com.
Drewry projects a ~1% decline in global port volumes for 2025 due to trade policies—one of the few annual volume declines since 1979 reuters.com +1investors.com +1.

🧭 3. Shipping Lines' Strategic Response

Front-loading in Q1: Shippers rushed imports ahead of tariff deadlines to avoid higher costs, notably boosting Q1 volumes.
Post-May downturn: As tariffs kicked in, importers paused or canceled shipments—Hapag‑Lloyd reported ~30% of China–U.S. cargo cancelled .
Blank sailings spike: Carriers slashed sailings (e.g. 17 blank sailings scheduled in May for Long Beach) to match weakening demand supplychain247.com +3mykn.kuehne-nagel.com +3ctol.digital +3.
Rate volatility: Demand-supply imbalances are causing freight rates to surge and fall sharply; forward quotes suggest a potential cooling later in June .

📅 Trend Timeline

Period	Highlights
Jan–Apr ’25	Front-loaded import surge, Q1 volume high
April 2–14	Tariffs take effect (10–145%), front-loading peaks
Mid‑May	Sharp volume drop in LA/Long Beach (~35–38%)
Late May/June	Rate spikes; cancellations & blankings surge
June onward	Tariff reduction to 30% on Chinese goods; signs of stabilization, but uncertainty remains reuters.com +4en.wikipedia.org +4wsj.com +4taxfoundation.org +7reuters.com +7budgetlab.yale.edu +7reuters.commykn.kuehne-nagel.com +1calmatters.org +1

🔍 MBIEC Analysis

Short-term lift: Q1 volumes were buoyed by tactical front-loading, benefiting carriers temporarily.
Mid-year contraction: As tariffs hit, both volume and utilization dropped sharply, with container lines responding via schedule cuts and blank sailings.
Rate chaos: Spot freight rates spiked, but industry consensus points to a peak and possible trend reversal into late summer.
Outlook hinges on policy: The 90-day pause, tariff re-negotiations, and possible legal shifts (e.g., trade court vacating then reinstating tariffs) make near-term freight outlook highly uncertain.

In Summary: Since January, the container sector rode a wave of pre-tariff front-loading, followed by a steep mid-spring slowdown as tariffs suppressed import demand. Carriers have tightened capacity, spot rates have spiked, and now we're entering a hinge period—June–July—where tariff adjustments and global negotiations will determine whether volume rebounds or continues to falter.