Mid‑2025 Newbuilding Outlook

Mid‑2025 Newbuilding Outlook Segment‑by‑Segment Guide to Vessels Entering the Market

The world’s shipyards are booked solid through the decade, and 2025‑26 delivery schedules are swelling across most cargo and passenger classes. Decarbonisation deadlines, high 2021‑23 freight earnings and cheap capital have all combined to pull forward ordering decisions. Below is the MBIEC view of the fresh tonnage now queuing for sea‑trials and what it means for supply‑demand balances.

1. Container Ships

• Orderbook at a record 9 – 9.5 M TEU, ≈30 % of the fleet. Close to 800 box‑ships are on order, and contracting is not over yet. (mykn.kuehne-nagel.com)

• Delivery wave peaking now through 2026. Fleet capacity is projected to be 46 % larger than 2019 levels by 2026 while demand is forecast to be up only 22 %. (ft.com)

• Size mix matters. Neopanamax (13‑15 k TEU) units account for 60 % of main‑line newbuilds delivering through 2025, with Megamaxes (23‑24 k TEU) at 23 %. (markets.businessinsider.com)

• Fuel decisions: 70 % of 2024‑25 orders are LNG‑dual‑fuel; methanol‑ready now trails at ~14 % of contracts. (rivieramm.com)

MBIEC take: Supply pressure is building on Asia‑Europe and trans‑Pacific lanes. Carriers will lean heavily on slow‑steaming, extra‑loader pull‑outs and early recycling to keep utilisation healthy.

2. Tankers (Crude & Products)

• Orderbook has nearly tripled since 2022 to 12.9 % of the fleet. (lloydslist.com)

• Segment winners: Aframax/LR2 (18.3 % orderbook‑to‑fleet) and Suezmax (16.6 %) see the biggest inflows; VLCCs remain modest at 7.8 %. (lloydslist.com)

• Delivery cadence: MBIEC modelling (AXS data) shows Aframax/LR supply up 9.4 % in 2025 and 11.3 % in 2026, outstripping demand growth; VLCC growth stays below 2 % p.a. (public.axsmarine.com)

MBIEC take: Product‑tanker strength endures into 2025, but crude segments may see spot‑rate softness once the Suezmax wave lands unless scrapping accelerates.

3. Dry Bulk

• Orderbook remains historically low at <10 % of on‑water dwt. (globenewswire.com)

• 2025 delivery schedules: 164 Supra/Ultramax bulkers are slated for hand‑over, lifting supply roughly 5 %. Fleet growth then eases in 2026‑27. (globenewswire.com)

• Newbuild reluctance: High yard prices, fuel‑technology uncertainty and berth scarcity keep owners cautious.

MBIEC take: Supply discipline gives Capesize and Post‑Panamax owners breathing room; rate volatility will track Chinese steel stimulus more than fleet additions.

4. Gas Carriers

LNG

• 650 ships on the water and counting. Charter rates plunged in late‑2024 amid vessel oversupply and liquefaction project delays. (ft.com)

• Order momentum unabated: 33 of the 34 alternative‑fuel vessels ordered in Feb‑2025 were LNG‑capable. (shipandbunker.com)

• Selective expansion: Owners like Celsius now hold 21 LNGCs on order, stretching into 2027. (offshore-energy.biz)

LPG & Ammonia

VLGC and VLAC projects are pivoting to ammonia carriage and dual‑fuel engines, with first deliveries clustered in 2026‑27. (rivieramm.com)

MBIEC take: Near‑term oversupply keeps spot TCEs under pressure, but EU‑plus‑Asia demand and North‑America export growth post‑2027 justify the long tail of the orderbook.

5. Pure Car & Truck Carriers (PCTC)

• OEM‑driven capacity race: BYD alone now fields five LNG‑dual‑fuel PCTCs, two at 9,200 CEU. (cnevpost.com, carnewschina.com)

• Traditional operators expanding: Sallaum Lines added six more LNG‑fuelled 7,400‑7,500 CEU vessels in late‑2024. (marinelink.com)

MBIEC take: EV export growth is turning vehicle logistics into the hottest newbuilding niche; rate peaks of 2023‑24 will moderate but remain structurally higher than pre‑Covid.

6. Cruise & Passenger

• 2025‑26 crop:

  • Disney Destiny & Disney Adventure enter service Nov & Dec 2025 (LNG). (en.wikipedia.org)

  • Star Princess delays push hand‑over to late‑2025; first Sphere‑class sister already sailing. (en.wikipedia.org)

  • MSC’s World Asia (216 k GT) debuts 2026, with at least two more sisters firmed through 2027. (en.wikipedia.org)

MBIEC take: Big‑ship deliveries are paced to match berth demand recovery; LNG dual‑fuel and shore‑power readiness are now baseline specs.

7. Offshore Wind Service (CSOV/SOV)

• Edda Wind has four methanol‑ready CSOVs delivering 2025‑26, taking its fleet to 14 units. (eddawind.com)

• Windward Offshore/Fincantieri hybrid CSOV pair arrives from Q2‑2025, optioned for two more. (fincantieri.com)

MBIEC take: With EU wind‑farm installations doubling by 2027, the CSOV orderbook is still playing catch‑up; charter cover remains strong and long‑dated.

Cross‑Segment Conclusions

1. Capacity Growth Is Uneven: Containers and Aframax/LR2 tankers face the stiffest fleet‑expansion headwinds; dry bulk is the clear laggard in ordering.

2. Alt‑Fuel Transition Is Accelerating: Over half of 2024‑25 contracts are LNG‑dual‑fuel, methanol‑ready or ammonia‑ready, locking in future bunkering demand for green molecules.

3. Yard Capacity Is the New Bottleneck: With Tier‑1 Asian yards sold out into 2028, late adopters will pay more and wait longer—reinforcing current orderbook divides.

4. Earnings Outlook: Expect bifurcation—segments with subdued orderbooks (dry bulk capesize, VLCC) retain upside leverage; high‑orderbook classes require disciplined speed management and scrapping to avoid rate erosion.

Maverick Business Intelligence & Energy Company

MBIEC will continue to monitor slippage, cancellations and emerging retrofit programmes that could meaningfully change this outlook ahead of the 2026 delivery peak.