U.S. Gulf Maritime Bunker Market

MBIEC-focused outlook on the U.S. Gulf maritime bunker market — examining bunkering, oil tankers, dry bulk, and offshore support vessels — especially in light of tariff-driven trade and shifting spot rates.

⛽ 1. U.S. Gulf Bunkering Market (Houston, Galveston, Corpus Christi)

• HSFO tightness persists: HSFO availability in Houston remains constrained, with lead times ≥7 days through March–May reuters.com+12manifoldtimes.com+12midship.com+12dan-bunkering.com+3manifoldtimes.com+3manifoldtimes.com+3.

• VLSFO/LSMGO stable: Prompt bunker availability via pipelines for cleaner grades, accommodating both spot and contract voyages manifoldtimes.com+2manifoldtimes.com+2manifoldtimes.com+2.

• Demand muted but poised to rebound: Early‑2025 demand was sluggish, yet regional offshore activity and port upgrades (e.g., Corpus Christi channel deepening) support moderate recovery linkedin.com+15manifoldtimes.com+15thesignalgroup.com+15.

• LNG bunkering emerging: The Galveston LNG Bunker Port (GLBP) received permits in May, aiming for 360k gal/day initial capacity by 2027, doubling supply in Phase 2 businesswire.com+4reuters.com+4manifoldtimes.com+4.

Outlook (next 6 months):

• Bunkering to rebound +3–6% YoY in H2, driven by offshore support fleets and green fuel infrastructure.

• HSFO bottlenecks may persist; growth in LNG bunkering delayed until late ‘27.

• VLSFO margins likely compress due to increasing competition.

🛢️ 2. Oil Tankers (Aframax, Suezmax, VLCC)

• Tariff-sensitive flows: Q1 Q2 saw slight tanker volume dips (–5–10%) on Gulf–US routes when tariffs threatened export pipelines engine.online+9dan-bunkering.com+9manifoldtimes.com+9manifoldtimes.commanifoldtimes.com+3manifoldtimes.com+3dan-bunkering.com+3thesignalgroup.com.

• Geopolitics supporting tanker rates: U.S. sanctions on Russian shipping fuel demand for alternative tanker capacity, bolstering VLCC freight in early 2025 .

• Chartering cautious: Traders are shying away from long-term charters due to uncertainty in trade/policy; however, spot freight remains robust .

• Dual-fuel potential: The Texas City LNG bunkering project may support LNG-powered tanker callings post-2027.

Outlook:

• Spot rates strong through Q4: Aframax and Suezmax benefit from constrained U.S. Gulf crude exports and volumes re-routing.

• Long-term charter reluctance continues into Q3–Q4.

• GLBP’s operational ramp will help future gas-fueled tanker conversions.

📦 3. Dry Bulk (Grain, Coal, Aggregates)

• Spot charter strength in Gulf: U.S. Gulf supramax/handysize fixtures remain firm, with Supramax ≈US$12.5 k/day and Handysize ≈US$10.3 k manifoldtimes.com+1thesignalgroup.com+1reuters.com.

• Soft capsizes: Capesize trades plateau globally amid weak Chinese demand but limited new supply provides support engine.online+4seatrade-maritime.com+4argusmedia.com+4.

• Tariff pressure on agricultural exports: U.S.–China tensions weigh on grain/barge export volumes, impacting lighter vessel traffic inland seatrade-maritime.com+2linkedin.com+2manifoldtimes.com+2.

Outlook:

• Dry bulk demand in U.S. Gulf stays healthy into Q3, underpinned by robust coastal trades and inventory restocking.

• Q4 volume may soften if new tariff barriers emerge.

• Spot charter rates expected to remain in mid‑teens of thousands daily.

🛥️ 4. Offshore Support & Supply Vessels (OSVs)

• Offshore activity increasing: U.S. Gulf offshore energy operations (Gulf of Mexico) are projected to rise ~15% in 2025, boosting bunker and vessel demand thesignalgroup.com+3midship.com+3dan-bunkering.com+3ft.comverifiedmarketresearch.com.

• Infrastructure investments: Port infrastructure upgrades (e.g., Corpus Christi deepening, shipping channel improvements) are drawing more OSV calls manifoldtimes.com.

• Hurricane season risk: Early H2 may see operational disruption due to weather, affecting supply schedules manifoldtimes.com.

Outlook:

• OSV activity and bunker volumes surge into Q3, then hold steady following offshore capex schedules.

• Demand for both conventional and cleaner fuels likely increases, favoring LNG-capable platforms post-GLBP.

• Weather-related disruptions will cause temporary volatility Q3, but overall demand remains solid.

🔍 Summary Table: U.S. Gulf 6-Month Forecast

Sector	Trend Q3–Q4 2025	Key Drivers
Bunkering	🟢 Moderate rebound +5–7%	Offshore growth, port upgrades
Oil Tankers	🟢 Spot rates strong; charter hesitancy persists	Tariffs, sanctions, reduced capacity
Dry Bulk	🟢 H1 stays firm; Q4 may soften	Coastal trades, tariff ripple
OSVs	🟢 OSV call-up into Q3; stable thereafter	Offshore capex, weather effects

⚓ MBIEC Takeaways

1. Diversified resilience: U.S. Gulf’s mix of offshore, crude, and coastal trades cushions against container market downturns.

2. Fuel transitions underway: While LNG bunkering won’t begin until 2027, groundwork via port upgrades and pilot projects is solid.

3. Freight momentum endures: Despite overall global softness, key sectors—tankers, bulkers, OSVs—remain active and supportive of regional maritime operations.

4. Near-term volatility: Weather and policy (tariffs/sanctions) present upside and downside risk scenarios into late 2025.

MBIEC