US Gulf | Tariffs, Tankers & Trends 2025
- FD&A Department
- May 31
- 3 min read
Updated: Jun 8
Amid ongoing volatility, here’s a comprehensive MBIEC analysis—complete with vessel‑level rate dashboards and scenario models—to project the impact of the upcoming USTR fee regime on Gulf trade and global tanker economics over the 12‑month horizon:
⚓ 1. Vessel‑Level Tanker Spot Rates (Current & Projected)
📌 Key drivers: Strong H2 demand persists driven by capacity constraints, tariff arbitrage, and Gulf crude flow dynamics. But downside looms if USTR fees and trade volatility escalate.
📦 2. US Gulf Dry Bulk Rates
Supramax (US Gulf → Skaw)– Spot: currently ∼$20.8 K/day; 1Y TC ∼$12.7 K/day
Handysize– Spot: ∼$11.7 K/day; 1Y TC ∼$12.2 K/day
Capesize– Scrubber-fitted: ∼$20.3 K/day; eco: ∼$19.3 K/day
Forecast: Supramax/Handysize to hover between $10–15 K/day through Q4, with slight seasonal dips. Capesize stays range-bound barring China demand pick-up.
⛽ 3. Gulf Bunker Supply & Pricing
HSFO: Barge-only, 7–10 day delays; modest lead time improvements possible in Q3
VLSFO/LSMGO: Prompt pipeline supply; brokerage-led competition likely to compress margins
Outlook: Flat-to-mild (+3–6%) bunker demand on OSV, tanker uplift; HSFO bottlenecks persist; margin squeeze through late 2025.
🧾 4. USTR Fee Forecast Model (Effective October 14, 2025)
The Section 301 maritime fees will reshape cost dynamics across eligible vessels calling at U.S. ports reuters.com+13dhl.com+13seatrade-maritime.com+13reuters.com+4icis.com+4icis.com+4icis.com+11seatrade-maritime.com+11bertling.com+11reuters.com+1hklaw.com+1mallorygroup.com+3pillsburylaw.com+3whitecase.com+3:
A. Impact on Containerships & Tankers
Chinese-linked or -built ships:– $50/NT on first U.S. port entry, rising to $140/NT by April 2028 thompsonhine.com+14whitecase.com+14ustr.gov+14– Implied per-move cost: ~$15 K–$100 K depending on vessel size
Spread in costs: West-bound journeys incur 1–5 fees/year per vessel
B. Bulkers & OSVs
📈 5. Scenario Modelling: Rate & Volume Impact
Scenario 1: Base Case – Costs Fully Passed On
Carriers add $2–4/mt to freight.
Containership demand sees ~2–4% volume drop to US Gulf.
Tanker rates hold steady; Panamax/Handy rates unaffected.
Scenario 2: Carrier Absorbs Fees (Competitive Retention)
Containership spot rates compress by $1–2/FEU.
Margin pressure intensifies, increased blank sailings (~10% more).
Tankers & bulkers unaffected; OSV unaffected.
Scenario 3: Fleet Restructuring / Exemption Shift
Shippers shift to non-Chinese-built tonnage or flag swaps → rerouting via Gulf/Atlantic systems.
Contains normalized via scale; ton-mile demand holds.
Margins recover by mid‑2026 as fleets adjust.
🧭 MBIEC Takeaways & Timeline
Q3 2025: Rates firm, bunkering recovers, fees remain theoretical
October 14, 2025: Fee regime begins—winners: non-Chinese operators; losers: Chinese-built/linked ships calling US Gulf
Q4 2025 to Q2 2026:– Containership spot rates soften 5–15% on cost absorption/transshipment– Tankers maintain until Treasury or trade policy shifts– OSVs and bulk unaffected, but slight shift in combinable percentage
Post Q2 2026: Carriers adapt fleets; competitive pressures ease, rates rebound gradually
🚀 Recommendations for Stakeholders
Track vessel lineage: Avoid Chinese-built vessels or ensure flag/operational exemptions
Lock in charters pre-October: Q4 tankers and transit TCs sealed now will avoid fees
Shift tonnage early: Charter from Korean/Japanese fleets to sidestep cost bumps
Optimize itineraries: Group US stops to limit fee hits (remember—fee max 5×/yr)
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