US Gulf | Tanker Analysis May 2025

Here’s a detailed MBIEC update on vessel-level rate estimates, Gulf bunker supply schedules, and a comparative model for tanker rates vs. Atlantic routes:

🛢️ 1. Vessel‑Level Tanker Spot Rates (US Gulf)

Baltic Exchange & Clarksons show strong spot earnings into early June:

• VLCC (US Gulf ⇄ China, TD22)• Spot TCE ~ $45,900/day manifoldtimes.com+10balticexchange.com+10argusmedia.com+10

• Suezmax (CPC/Med, TD6)• Spot TCE ~ $67,900/day sin.clarksons.net+4balticexchange.com+4hyqfocus.com+4

• Aframax (E Coast Mexico / US Gulf, TD26)• Daily TCE ~ $52,500 (WS193)• US Gulf → UK Continent (TD25) ~ $46,500/day stand.earth+13balticexchange.com+13hyqfocus.com+13

• Dirty Tanker Baskets:• Fearnleys (early June): VLCC ~$123K, Suezmax ~$82.5K, Aframax ~$69.5K — these are WAF/Gulf baskets measured in daily earnings marinelog.com+12spglobal.com+12hyqfocus.com+12new.fearnpulse.com+1spglobal.com+1

Forecast Q3–Q4:• Aframax/Suezmax continue strong spot earnings, with trans-Atlantic routes near $50–60K/day, softer than Mediterranean highs (~$61K).• VLCC maintains $40–50K/day TCE on US Gulf → Asia runs.

📦 2. Dry Bulk Charter Rates Out of US Gulf

Based on Clarksons and Xclusiv weeklies:

• Supramax/Supramax (30–60 k DWT):• Spot ~ $20,800/day (US Gulf → Skaw)• 1-year TC ~ $12,700/day (Kamsarmax); $11,700/day (Panamax) manifoldtimes.com+12hyqfocus.com+12balticexchange.com+12

• Handysize:• US Gulf → Continent spot ~ $11,743/day• 1-year TC ~ $12,250/day hellenicshippingnews.com+2hyqfocus.com+2balticexchange.com+2

• Capesize:• Scrubber-fitted ~ $20,250/day; eco 180k ~ $19,250/day annual hyqfocus.com+1spglobal.com+1

➡️ Forecast Q3–Q4: Coastal grain/steel trades sustain Supramax/Handy at $10–15K/day; deeper-draft Capesize sees circumscribed activity and narrower range.

⛽ 3. Bunkering Supply & Availability (Houston, Galveston, Corpus Christi)

Availability & pricing (June 2025):

• HSFO:• Available via barge only, 7–10 day lead times; tight supply continues manifoldtimes.com+1manifoldtimes.com+1

• VLSFO/LSMGO:• Prompt via pipeline; lead times 3–5 days galvestonlng.com+2manifoldtimes.com+2manifoldtimes.com+2

• Corpus Christi:• Channel deepened; supports larger bunker-ready vessels galvestonlng.com+11manifoldtimes.com+11reuters.com+11

• Galveston Pilot restrictions:• Daylight-only transit for >120 k DWT vessels manifoldtimes.com+1manifoldtimes.com+1

➡️ Outlook: Q3 sees 3–6% YoY bunker demand rebound from OSVs and tankers. HSFO remains tight; bunker margins likely compressed by competition.

⚡ 4. LNG Bunkering – Future Shift via GLBP

• Galveston LNG Bunker Port (GLBP):• Construction begins late 2025; service online H2 2027 (360k gpd initially, 720k build-out) manifoldtimes.comgcaptain.com+8reuters.com+8marinelog.com+8

• Impact:• No LNG bunker supply until 2027, but groundwork underway.• Pilot LNG/Seapath project positions Gulf for dual-fuel vessels (tankers, cruise, OSVs) post-2027.

🧭 5. Comparative Tanker Rate Model: Gulf vs Atlantic Routes

Route	WS	TCE/day (USD)	Compare Atlantic Route
US Gulf → UK Continent (TD25)	176	~$46,500	Atlantic TD14 (ARA‑West Africa) ~$45K
E Coast Mexico → US Gulf (TD26)	193	~$52,500	US Gulf → Continent average ~$46K chron.com+4gcaptain.com+4marinelog.com+4manifoldtimes.com+5balticexchange.com+5hyqfocus.com+5hyqfocus.com
USGC → China (TD22)	—	~$45,900	West Africa → China (TD15) ~$52,400

➡️ Insight: Gulf–Europe and Gulf–Transatlantic trades remain competitive with similar Atlantic earnings. Gulf–Asia runs are slightly softer than West Africa–Asia.

✅ Final MBIEC Summary

1. Tankers: Aframax/Suezmax stay firm through H2; VLCC keeps ~ $40–50K/day TCE.

2. Dry Bulk: Supramax/Handysize steady at $10–15K/day; Capesize around $19–20K/day.

3. Bunkering: HSFO constrained; VLSFO prompt; Q3 rebound modestly; LNG bunkering begins post-2027.

4. Route Competitiveness: Gulf spot rates peer with Atlantic, supporting strong regional demand.

5. Strategy: Carriers and traders remain active on short/medium charters; long-term charter hesitancy persists amid policy uncertainties.

MBIEC