2024 Annual Report Summary; Oil, Gas & Shipping

Updated: Jun 9

The Annual Report Summary of the market from April 1st 2024 to March 31st 2025.

1. 📈 Global Oil & Gas Market Developments

Supply & Demand Trend Shifts

Oil demand growth slowed: The IEA revised 2025 oil demand growth down by 300 kb/d (from ~1.03 mb/d to ~730 kb/d), due to macroeconomic concerns and trade tensions imo.org +8cilive.com +8gard.no +8iea.org.
Oil supply rises: Production increased ~910 kb/d year-on-year in March 2025, reaching ~103.6 mb/d. OPEC+ planned to boost output by another 411 kb/d in May iea.org.

LNG & Gas Industry

China shifts heavy road transport toward LNG, signaling a boost for natural gas in marine bunkering and inland logistics climate.ec.europa.eu +15iea.blob.core.windows.net +15reuters.com +15.
U.S. LNG faces trade and shipping constraints: New rules aim to exclude Chinese-built carriers from U.S. LNG exports—with a 22-year phase-in—raising concerns about cost hikes and capability gaps ft.com.

Red Sea Security Crisis

Houthi attacks in June 2024 triggered a 90% drop in Red Sea container traffic. Rerouting via Cape of Good Hope added ~10 days and ~$1 million in fuel costs per voyage en.wikipedia.org.
Suez transit fell from ~2,068 ships (Nov 2023) to ~877 (Oct 2024), with lingering disruption and elevated freight costs into early 2025 en.wikipedia.org.

Russian “Shadow Fleet” Impact

The increase of uninsured Russian tankers evading sanctions poses significant safety and environmental risks.
EU and UK coordinated to counter the fleet; Germany seized a shadow tanker (“Eventin”) carrying 100k tons of Russian oil in March 2025 en.wikipedia.org.

U.S.–China Shipping Policy Friction

Imposition of port fees of up to $5.2 million per U.S. call on Chinese-built or -operated supertankers is anticipated from mid‑October 2025. Intended to boost domestic shipbuilding, this may escalate freight costs and bilateral tensions nypost.com.

IMO Net‑Zero Emissions Framework

In April 2025, MEPC‑83 drafted a global IMO Net‑Zero Framework (under MARPOL Annex VI Chapter 5), integrating fuel standards and a $100/t CO₂ pricing.
Final adoption is expected in October 2025, with entry into force in 2027, targeting large ships (≥5,000 GT) responsible for 85% of emissions climate.ec.europa.eu +15imo.org +15rivieramm.com +15.

Sulphur Emissions Controls

Sulphur ECAs expanded in October 2024 to Norwegian Sea and Canadian Arctic, effective March 2026 (with 0.10% cap by March 2027) gard.no.
A new North‑East Atlantic ECA was approved in March 2025, linking existing zones, pending full effect in late 2027 gard.no.

EU ETS & FuelEU Maritime

Shipping has been included in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme since 2024. Operators must monitor, report, and acquire allowances for voyages to/from/within the EU en.wikipedia.org.
FuelEU Maritime regulations also set lifecycle-based GHG intensity requirements, pushing vessels toward biofuels, LNG, methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen reuters.com.

Oil/Oily Discharge Restrictions

From Jan 1 2025, stricter MARPOL Annexes I & V apply in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Gulf of Aqaba/Suez: zero discharge of oil/oily mixtures and garbage gard.no.

Clean Fuel Adoption & Trials

Major players are testing alternative fuels: Fortescue’s ammonia-powered Green Pioneer, Maersk’s methanol vessels, biofuels, LNG/biomethane conversions, and hydrogen pilots reuters.com.
Port infrastructure in Rotterdam and Singapore is expanding to support methanol and ammonia bunkering reuters.com.

Efficiency Boosters

Quick-to-implement solutions like route optimization software, wind-assisted propulsion, hull coatings, and hybrid systems are being deployed globally reuters.com.

Compliance Tech & Autonomous Vessels

Research into blockchain‑based MARPOL compliance monitoring is underway, aimed at real‑time, tamper‑proof environmental oversight arxiv.org +2arxiv.org +2arxiv.org +2.
Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) are entering early-stage trials; regulatory frameworks for approval and liability are being developed arxiv.org.

Focus Area	Strategic Concern	Opportunity
Trade Lane Risk	Elevated costs from Red Sea rerouting and U.S.–China shipping fees.	Diversify routes, invest in risk-insured shipping contracts.
Compliance Costs	ETS, fuel standards, discharge bans will increase operational and capex demands.	Early investment in green fuel retrofits and compliance solutions.
Fuel Transition	Major ships trialing ammonia, methanol present long-term risk/reward balance.	Partner with ports/infrastructure players to secure supply chains and tech.
Shadow Fleet Risk	Illicit tankers threaten environmental, reputational risk.	Leverage enhanced vetting, traceability to minimize exposure.
Fleet Optimization	Regulation favors low-GHG, efficient fleets; tech is key.	Opportunity to advise on retrofit services, route planning, sensor tech.

Red Sea security threats severely disrupted maritime oil/gas flow in mid‑2024, increasing fuel costs and transit times.
U.S.–China port levies for Chinese-built tankers could spike shipping costs and complicate LNG exports.
Global maritime emissions regulation has accelerated: sulphur caps extended; EU ETS and IMO pricing underway; net‑zero rules expected by 2027.
A shift toward alternative fuels is underway, with significant trials in ammonia, methanol, and LNG, supported by port upgrades.
Digital compliance and autonomous shipping are emerging trends that may redefine lifecycles and risk management.

Stress-test logistics with scenarios involving route rerouting and cost impositions from regulatory levies.
Prioritize vessel retrofits and greener fuel adoption to meet upcoming compliance mandates.
Engage with digital-compliance tools and blockchain solutions for MARPOL adherence.
Monitor geopolitical dynamics (Houthi activity, China shipping policies, shadow fleets) for insurance and risk planning.
Advance pilot partnerships in green fuel bunkering infrastructure to capitalize on early mover advantage.