April Annual Market Report (Oil, Gas & Shipping)

1. 🌐 Global Oil & Gas Market Overview

LNG as leading alternative fuel: By 2024, the number of LNG-powered vessels exceeded 600, up from just 21 in 2010, representing over 2% of the fleet. Maersk pivoted to include 50–60 dual-fuel LNG vessels in its fleet renewal program alsharqi.co +4spglobal.com +4apnews.com +4gcaptain.com.
Fleet capacity remains tight: Shipyard constraints and limited new orders have slowed tanker fleet expansion to the lowest in decades. Meanwhile, refined products and crude flow distances—particularly U.S. to Europe—grew due to rerouting post Russia-Ukraine war spglobal.com.

Houthi attacks escalate: Since November 2023, Houthi missile strikes—including January 26, 2024’s Marlin Luanda tanker hit—caused environmental and human safety incidents en.wikipedia.org +12kennedyslaw.com +12en.wikipedia.org +12.
Insurance premiums rise sharply: War-risk costs displaced vessels to the Cape of Good Hope, lengthening voyages by ~10% for crude and ~17% for product tankers spglobal.com +4bimco.org +4spglobal.com +4.
Operation Prosperity Guardian deployment: Launched December 18, 2023, a U.S.-led multinational naval task force responded to secure the corridor; IMO formally condemned attacks in May 2024 kennedyslaw.com +3en.wikipedia.org +3reddit.com +3.
Severe environmental damage: In August 2024, the MT Sounion was struck, spilling some 150,000 tonnes of oil in the Red Sea en.wikipedia.org +4en.wikipedia.org +4reuters.com +4.

Canal restrictions enforced: Low water in Gatun Lake from mid‑2023 prompted draft limitations (down to 27 transits/day vs. 40 normal), prioritizing container vessels and sidelining tankers into costly auctions spglobal.com.
Trade efficiencies disrupted: U.S.–Asia LNG cargoes via Panama and Suez fell ~7%, rerouted around Africa, increasing transit time and costs lemonde.fr +1apnews.com +1.

Arctic transit booms: In 2023, Northern Sea Route cargo hit a record ~36 million tonnes—up from ~34 million tonnes in 2022—reinforced by Red Sea rerouting reddit.com +15en.wikipedia.org +15gcaptain.com +15.
Geopolitical Arctic investments: China deployed icebreakers, and U.S., Canada, Finland formed the ICE Pact to bolster polar capability. Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 launch delayed by sanctions gcaptain.com.

Revised GHG strategy adopted (July 2023): IMO set targets for 40% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030 with net‑zero by 2050. Non-binding targets accelerate alternative fuel adoption offshore-energy.biz +1en.wikipedia.org +1.
Mandatory GHG charge by 2027: IMO plans to launch a global carbon pricing scheme on shipping emissions en.wikipedia.org.

Ammonia trials underway: Fortescue’s Green Pioneer demonstrated ammonia bunkering trials in Singapore (April 2024); concerns persist around handling toxic fuel seatrade-maritime.com.
LNG cements dominant position: Maritime industry increasingly accepting LNG as a practical transitional fuel, especially given its established infrastructure gcaptain.com.

Freight markets tighten: Tanker freight surged due to rerouting via Cape of Good Hope, Suez detours, and Red Sea risk premiums; VLCCs earning ~$35k/day, LR2s around $34k/day spglobal.com.
Global trade picks up: Early 2024 saw a rebound in trade volumes; though Red Sea disruptions intermittently distorted flow .

Route planning and insurance: Shipping lines engaged in dynamic route optimization and secured war-risk coverage for Red Sea transits.
Port congestion response: Singapore expanded berth capacity after becoming a chokepoint due to diversions at the Suez and Panama canals ft.com +14seatrade-maritime.com +14en.wikipedia.org +14.
Tech and green innovation: Stoked by regulation and fuel economics, trials persisted in LNG, ammonia propulsion, and autonomy/digital compliance systems.

Focus Area	Risks & Challenges	Strategic Opportunity
Security/Route Risk	Houthi attacks, canal drought, Arctic extremes	War-risk routing, insurance placement, updated voyage models
Regulatory Pressure	New GHG strategy, carbon pricing mandates	Early fuel conversion planning, cap-and-trade positioning
Fuel Transition	LNG dominates but cleaner options still nascent	LNG dual-fuel retrofits, ammonia bunkering partnerships, hydrogen feasibility
Fleet Capacity	Orderbook tight; ton-miles rising	Advising on ton-mile optimization, scrubber retrofits, and vessel repurposing
Port & Infrastructure	Chokepoint vulnerability, capacity congestion	Collaboration with ports on fuel, green bunkering infrastructure

Incorporate security risk premiums and alternate routing scenarios for Red Sea/Arctic in logistics planning.
Prepare for IMO-driven carbon pricing via advisory on carbon trading, fuel-switch strategies.
Support LNG retrofits and explore ammonia trials, offering design, safety, and transition guidance.
Monitor Panama and Arctic route shifts to capitalize on emerging trade flows via Northern Sea Route.
Partner with ports and insurers to manage capacity, risk, and cost impacts—especially in Singapore, Rotterdam, Panama.